Dear 2023,
You’ve been a wild ride.
And by wild, I mean Six Flags Kingda Ka 5 G-force please-get-me-off-of-this-thing-alive wild. When you should’ve slowed down by typical seasonal norms, you took off like a crazed banshee. When you should have been white-hot turbocharged by those same norms, you creaked to a cricket-chirping drip. So long, (not so) dear friend. I can’t say I’ll miss you.
What does 2024 have in store? While I don’t (nor does anyone I know) have a time machine, we’re beginning to see glimmers of what the New Year might look like in Realestateland.
Interest rates: For fear of jinxing what could be a very good thing, I don’t want to say it out loud, but many think we’ve crested the peak of Rate Mountain and are gliding towards stable if not marginally decreasing rates. If that’s true, it’s likely to draw more buyers into the marketplace; yet, could more buyers drive home prices even higher, creating an unintended chilling effect (especially for first-time buyers)? That remains to be seen. See next paragraph.
Available housing inventory: Some believe that an easing of interest rates may cause more sellers to part with their beloved COVID-era mortgage rates, cash in on unprecedented equity gains from the past 3 years, and move up (or down, or away, or wherever), bolstering the supply of available listings. This would obviously be a very good thing since the current market is desperately craving sellers to regain some balance. Again, we shall see.
Will there be a 2024 housing crash?: No one that I know or respect thinks so. Homeowners are sitting atop too much equity for there to be a foreclosure crisis a la 2008, and housing inventory remains too low (and demand too high) for prices to suddenly plunge in any meaningful way.
Should you sell and/or buy a home in 2024?: YES. My contact information is on this website, and I’d be delighted to help. Just kidding. Selling or buying a home is a deeply personal decision and should be made based on your economic goals, life circumstances, and financial position (with the understanding that climbing onto the housing ladder has long been known to substantially contribute to long-term personal wealth). Some words of wisdom, though: it’s impossible to “time” the market, so (except for a small subset of professional investors) don’t allow market conditions or where you believe the market is headed play an outsized role in any purchasing or selling decision. Many have gotten burned playing the game of market roulette.
The bottom line: If the nutty days of nonstop, zig-zagging interest rates are indeed behind us (or soon-to-be behind us), 2024 should be far less of a choppy ride than its predecessor, leading to a more predictable experience and happier buyers and sellers.
Happy holidays (and adios, 2023)!